see: Did Gary Johnson Just Get Boxed Out of the Debates? Bill Scher, Politico, August 16, 2016
For some reason I can’t get this link to work.
politico dot com / magazine / story / 2016 / 08 / gary – Johnson – debates – 214168
This is a well written article by Bill Scher. It covers the two most salient issues in the coming election for third parties.
1. Will either Libertarian Gary Johnson or Green Jill Stein get into the debates? What effect would that have?
2. HOW can Johnson and/or Stein get into the debates? as that is virtually unprecedented; H. Ross Perot 1992 being a notable exception.
The present rationale promoted in the lamestream media is that the 2 major candidates are so bad that unusual interest is generated in the two third party candidates, thus raising their polling. However so far it is minimal. Third parties usually poll higher at the beginning of the election cycle low double digits, high single digits, and steadily decrease up to election day to near about 1%. Johnson is polling about or above 10% but consistently lower than 15%. Stein about 5%. Question: How can he get at or even over the 15% hurdle?
Well, the conventional wisdom is for Johnson to attack Stein and Trump, presumably the two candidates that are competing for his votes. On the other hand, I would advise for Johnson to try the opposite i.e. join with Stein on the ground that it is only fair for BOTH to attend the debates rather than one or neither. I personally do not think either strategy will work. The duopoly polarization is too strong to allow room for two or even one more candidate. Perot was an outrageous exception PLUS he was not a leftist(Green) or rightist(libertarian) third party candidate but rather centrist. The Reform party was/is basically a centrist party as are the democrats and republicans.
I personally do not think any of these strategies will work. Third parties will not get into the debates and will not win. Politics as usual. Except…maybe…
Rather, I propose a different strategy. There has been noises about dropping Bill Weld from the Libertarian ticket pursuant to party bylaws. This was made by Tom Knapp, who recently tried for the Reform Party vp position on a Darcy Richardson/Tom Knapp proposed ticket. This would accomplish little for the LP; the damage of nominating Weld has been done, even if Knapp himself, a libertarian radical, were the replacement. Further, removing the complete ticket, Johnson/Weld was proposed by Professor George Phillies et al. Again to little avail. Replace one losing ticket with another? Why bother? ; the damage has been done.
Now, as an ostracized insider, I happen to know that Richardson/Knapp is/would be, a fusion ticket, as Darcy Richardson is a leftist/progressive of some type, not a Reform/centrist. The Formula for a fusion ticket is leftist/progressive president/libertarian vice president.
So, why not remove Johnson/Weld and replace with Richardson/Knapp? Then that ticket can appeal to MANY voting blocs e.g. the Bernie burnouts, the never Trumps, the lock up Billary, Independents, etc. That is a LOT of voters.
Richardson/Knapp could skyrocket in the polls quickly making 15% easily and rapidly rising. I’d put the ceiling at about 42%.
Further, Stein could also be removed and replaced with Richardson/Knapp.
For those of you, like me, that would prefer a woman on the ticket, I propose Tamara Millay, Knapp’s wife.